So Why Do Mortgage Rates Change So Much?

Have you ever called a mortgage company and received a quote and then called back the next day and the same rate was no longer available??

Mortgage companies, Banks and Credit Unions are subject to potential daily and even hourly shifts in the market. Interest rates fluctuate on the simple principal of supply and demand.   

Mortgage rates trade based on Mortgage Back Securities and The Bond Markets as well as the overall economy.  The vehicles that mortgage rates are based on are considered very conservative, stable and tend not to have the wild swings that one would find in the Stock Market.  If the Stock market begins to see large increases or decreases, Investors will shift Billions of dollars in and out of the Stock Market and move them in to the Mortgage Markets.  This will cause mortgage rates to either rise or fall.  Stock Market tanks, good news for Mortgage Rates, Stock Market rallies and rates suffer.   Investors and Traders will constantly shift funds out of the riskier stocks into the safe haven of the mortgage markets.  These shifts can occur as little as once a day or in some cases can happen multiple times during a trading day. Thus causing mortgage rates to possibly change multiple times in a day.

These markets are affected globally as well; so even after the markets are closed in US, whatever is happening in Europe, Asia and around the world will cause our markets to move one way or the other.

What drives interest rates (click here for quick facts)

Here are some of the variables that are being watched in today’s market:

• Covid-19 – Global Pandemic
• Ukraine
• Europe and Asia’s Economy
• Comments by the President
• Politics
• The US Housing Market
• Unemployment in our Country
• The Price of Oil and Gas
• The “Feds” decision to move short term interest rates
• The overall health of the US Economy

Any of these items can trigger a rally one way or another.  Even a simple comment at a breakfast meeting by the President, the Fed Chairman or someone in power is enough to influence the markets.

Additional Mortgage Rate and Index Information:

To help us understand why mortgage rates change, it is important to realize that there is not one interest rate, but multiple ones. Below are some of the most prevalent interest rates and indexes that also have an impact on mortgage rates:

Prime rate – This rate is often offered to a bank’s best customers. If you are shopping for a home equity line of credit, then it is important to familiarize yourself with the prime rate. HELOCs are typically based upon the prime rate -plus or minus a certain percentage.

LIBOR – Stands for London Inter-bank Offered Rates. Libor rates are based upon the rates that a select group of London Banks offer each other for inter-bank deposits. Many adjustable rate mortgage programs use the Libor index.

Treasury bill rates ”T-bills” and Treasury Notes – These are short-term and intermediate debt instruments used by our Government to finance their debt. The treasury index is based upon the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills or on the Treasury’s yield curve. Like the LIBOR index, the U.S. Treasury index is a popular index for adjustable rate mortgage products. Also, the Twelve Month Treasury Average (12 Month MTA) is a popular index which is based upon the twelve month average of the monthly yields of U.S. Treasury securities (maturing in one year). The MTA is a popular choice for option arm mortgage programs.

Treasury Bonds – Unlike T-bills and Treasury Notes, treasury bonds are long-debt instruments. These bonds are used by the U.S. Government to finance its debt.

Cost of Savings Index – often referred to as the COSI index. This index is based upon the annual average of interest rates on World Savings deposit accounts. The average is pulled on the last day of each month.

11th District Cost of Funds – Often referred to as the COFI index – The COFI index is based upon the average of the borrowing cost to member banks of the Home Loan Bank of San Francisco of the 11th District. Unless you are shopping for an option arm mortgage, it is unlikely that your loan will be affected by this rate.

Certificates of Deposit Index – Often referred to as the CODI index – this index is arrived at by calculating the average of the past twelve months rates of 3 month CD rates.

Federal Funds Rate – The fed funds target rate is the rate which federally chartered banking institutions lend balances to other depository banks overnight.

This is a lot of information to weigh each day when calculating mortgage rates.  In general, most Banks, Investors, Lenders etc. will set rates around 10:30am once most of the morning economic reports have been released and the markets have had time to react to the information.  In a calm trading day on Wall Street, these rates would be good for that day.  In a day where lots of Economic reports and World events are occurring, these rates can be reset a few times as the Markets fluctuate.  It is important to call your lender or bank often to check on these rates as they can and will change.  It also important not to follow online rate sites that may be posting Average Rates as this information can be old as well a different Financial Picture then you may have.  The Freddie Mac rates are based on closed loans from last week and an average of .7 Points of fees in the rate. This may give you a range, but not accurate enough to base your mortgage payment on or what is happening today in the markets.

Bill Nickerson has been in the Mortgage industry since 1991. Please leave a comment, email or call me anytime with questions you may have about mortgage programs, rates and to get approved for a mortgage.

   NMLS# 4194  www.billnickerson.com  978-273-3227

Bill Nickerson

Proactive Buyers help escrow close on time!

Maybe it’s not the most fascinating topic of the day. If you’re buying a home, however, and that “time is of the essence” phrase on the purchase agreement is really applied, how easily and quickly your escrow closes is indeed the kind of thing that can keep you up at night. No one likes a long, drawn-out closing process if it can be avoided. So let’s look at what YOU and all parties can do to make this closing thing a piece of cake.

Unless your purchase is a cash transaction, the typical agreement calls for a 30 to 45 day close in which buyers, sellers, and vendors are working tirelessly to execute the terms of the purchase. The reason so many buyer agents put an escrow or transaction coordinator (TC) in charge of this process is simple — having one person there to keep everyone on track is more than a luxury. If closing is to take place on time, it’s a necessity. Once a purchase price is agreed to, and your earnest money deposit has been deposited in the escrow account, the TC will become your best friend. If you make him or her happy, you’re halfway there.

The first thing many agents and homebuilder reps do is to have you and the seller fill out a contact sheet. This sounds like a ridiculously simple task, and it is. But its importance should not be minimized. With all contact info of all parties, escrow is then able to proactively reach out and communicate to everyone and begin gathering all the necessary paperwork and information. This includes information on not only buyer and seller, but also their lenders (if the home is paid off, happy day…). The title company to be used is also listed, plus anyone else vital to the transaction closing.

Of course, the purchase agreement needs to be buttoned up with all the necessary signatures, and escrow will need to contact any homeowner associations (if they exist) that need to be made privy to the transaction. Yes. This part is important. Ask any agent around, and they will tell you that escrow is often not made aware when there is a 2nd HOA, leading to closing delays. The more complete the information is upfront, the better the process will be. In fact, it’s wise to ask your agent for a “road map” for how closing works so that you can gaze at it as each step is completed. It may help you stay sane.

Just because you’re in escrow doesn’t mean it’s time to take that much-needed vacation. There will be time for that after the close of escrow, even if it took you many months traipsing through hundreds of houses to find this one. Finding parties to the agreement for vital information is ten times more difficult when they are floating in a pool somewhere on a tropical island. When escrow calls and emails with a request, jump. You heard that right. The quicker you respond, the more time and energy is saved. Check voicemail, texts, and email regularly during this 30-day process and respond promptly to all vendor requests to ensure an on-time close.

And don’t be afraid to ask questions through the process. Typically, the person in charge of your escrow will move quickly through a lot of their checklist, but they are never too busy to answer questions and explain how and what the documents mean. Escrow also appreciates clear communication on any special requests. Can’t be there for the close and prefer to sign documents in the office with a notary, e-sign on your phone or computer, or have a mobile notary visit your home to sign? These are arrangements that need to be put in place long before the closing date. And if there are other parties to the transaction (like co-signers) the same applies to them.

The lender and escrow will inevitably need to rely on each other for accurate and timely disclosure of all fees, so introduce them right away. The sooner they become household words to one another, the quicker the documents can be produced accurately and made available for review. This shortens wait times and helps avoid unnecessary delays when the deal comes closer to final loan documents, which will begin being referred to as “docs” — not of the medical variety.

Home inspections and final loan approval (any and all conditions placed on your approval must be removed) must be satisfied and signed off on before that magic day happens. So, if you’re in doubt that you are not doing all you can, call your lender, the TC, and even the escrow company to ensure that you are doing all you can to make this happen on time. Be the squeaky wheel, even though you may feel you are surrounded by all manner of experts who reassure you everything is fine. They may have dozens of transactions to be concerned about. You only have one.

Source: TBWS

Training for the Pan Mass Challenge

Bill Nickerson | NMLS #4194 | 978.273.3227 | Bill@billnickerson.com

 

5 Indicators of Where the Market’s Headed

5 Leading Indicators to Gauge Where
The Real Estate Market Is Heading

There are several key indicators that may predict what to expect in the weeks and months ahead. Instead of relying solely on the more sluggish statistics of home sales and pending contracts, knowing the following info will give you a much clearer perspective on the market.   

In total, there are five leading economic indicators:

#1: New listings available – On the supply side of things, signs of improvement are on the horizon.

In April, Redfin reported there was a staggering year-over-year decline in new listings of just over 50%. Now, however, both Redfin and Realtor.com have shared data from mid-May showing that annual stat has already shrunk to around 30%.

#2: Demand for homes – It’s no secret the real estate market relies heavily on supply and demand.

Thanks to states slowly opening back up for business, CNBC reported buyers have been “coming out in force,” wearing their masks for showings and ready to buy sooner than anticipated. Even in the first week of May, Redfin had noted its agents were experiencing demand that was 5.5% higher than even 2020’s pre-pandemic numbers. And just last week, mortgage applications rose 6% from the week before. Demand has also been fueled by the fact mortgage rates remain generously low, and many agents are doubling-down on using tech to show homes and close deals as needed.

#3: How long houses are sitting – As past trends would show, the longer a house takes to move, the more likely it may sell for less than its asking price.

Some sellers may find themselves waiting a bit longer to close a deal, as  Realtor.com recently found properties in the 99 largest metros across the country have been on the market for an average of 13 extra days, compared to a year ago. And even though buyers have been coming back out of the woodwork, there’s still a decent amount of would-be homeowners waiting until it feels a little safer to make the commitment.  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) did a survey where 40% of agents said their clients put their purchasing on pause for “a couple of months.

#4: Pricing – Although recent data has shown home prices are still 1.4% higher than a year ago,

Zillow has forecasted an overall dip of 2-3% by the end of 2020. While this may not be the news some people want to hear, to put this in perspective, we survived a much larger dip when the Great Recession dented home prices just over 27%. Plus, this is just one perspective. Fannie Mae has forecasted that the average existing-home price in 2020 will be $283,000, which is an overall growth of 4% compared to 2019.

#5: Job markets / unemployment rates

As with any other part of the economy, employment and financial stability influence the real estate market. As noted before, a decent segment of agents have reported their clients hitting the pause button on their home searches for a couple months. When it comes to those looking to sell, it really comes down to their personal situations. Some may want to stay put to avoid struggling to find their next abode, others may need the cash and/or want to shed having a monthly mortgage payment lingering over their head.

The market is still active. Your clients don’t have to sit on the sidelines while rates are at all-time lows. Contact me today to see how we can work together to help your clients match with a mortgage that meets their current needs, while supporting their goals for the future.

Bill Nickerson | Senior Loan Advisor | Flagstar Bank | Email | Bill’s Website

1500 District Avenue, Burlington MA | NMLS #4194

Can you answer Yes to any of these questions??

If you or someone you know can answer Yes to any of these questions, we should talk!!

• Paying PMI (private mortgage insurance)
• Have an Adjustable Rate Mortgage
• Credit Card Balances over $10,000
• Need cash for renovations to your home
• Have a First and Second mortgage to combine
• Your Home Equity Line of Credit keeps going up?
• Simply lower your rate and payment
• Reduce your term to a 20, 15 or 10 year mortgage
• Finance your Child’s College Education
• Is your your 30 Year Fixed Rate mortgage over 4.00%?
• Is your your 15 Year Fixed Rate mortgage over 3.50%?

These are just some of the reasons it may be time to refinance your home and create cash-flow monthly.  It’s not just about interest rate anymore, it’s about cash-flow!  Creating wealth by increasing your monthly cash-flow.

Will you create a positive monthly cash flow each month?

The longer you have the new loan, the more the savings add up. A $1,200 per year savings could grow to tens of thousands over the life of the loan. If you apply your monthly savings to your principal, you will save even more on interest and own your home sooner.

Bottom Line: If it saves you money  by lowering your rate,  lowering your term or consolidating debts to create cash flow to improve your financial situation, then it is worth looking in to.  If it allows you to create more space in your home, update or renovate, invest in a second home, or even cover the costs of College or a Wedding, then its worth looking into.  Everyone’s loan balance is different, credit score, income and the amount of money borrowed.  So your situation will be different from others.  You owe it to yourself and your family to create your own wealth.

I am always happy to go over real numbers specific to your situation. Reach out anytime and we can see what advantages might be available for you and your family.  

Feel free to call me on my cell at 978.273.3227 or Email

Bill Nickerson NMLS #4194

How does refinancing save homeowners money?

Question: How does refinancing save homeowners money?

There are two categories of refinancing, “rate-and-term” and “cash-out.” Both can save you money.

The first type, rate-and-term, replaces your existing loan with one that has a better rate and/or terms. You might replace an ARM or balloon loan with a fixed-rate loan, for example. Or you may decide to lower your rate AND shorten your term. Some borrowers have been able to refinance from a 30-year loan into a 15 or 20-year loan, reducing the term, without appreciably raising their payments.

A borrower does not receive any significant amount of cash in a rate-and-term refinance; lenders generally consider that any cash proceeds above $2,000 pushes the loan into a cash-out category.

There are always certain costs involved in any mortgage transaction; there will always be fees for title, escrow, underwriting and document preparation, for example. Borrowers can add these fees to their new loan so as to avoid having to pay them in cash. Financing these items is not considered cash-out.

When you are deciding whether to do a rate-and-term refinance, you should evaluate it in two primary ways: first, how long will it take to recover the cost of doing the loan? For example, if the closing costs amount to $3,000 and the reduction in rate gives a saving of $1,500 per year in the first year, it will take approximately two years to “break even.” For most people, this time frame is more than satisfactory, but you should make your own decision. The second criterion is net savings over some time period, say five years, ten years or more.

Homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) may decide to refinance into a fixed rate loan, even though their rate may initially be higher, they might feel more secure knowing that their rate will never change. This is more of a defensive strategy to guard against the possibility of a higher rate in the future, but it may not “save money.”

The other type of refinance, a “cash-out,” is one where the borrower receives cash of more than $2,000 at closing. This is accomplished by getting a new loan that is larger than the balance of the old one plus closing costs. Borrowers can use that money for anything. Some homeowners have used cash-out refinances to pay off consumer debt, like car loans, student loans, and credit cards. Using home equity to pay off credit cards can drop the payment dramatically! But paying down installment loans can create a false economy. A $30,000 car loan with an interest rate of 6% will have a payment of $500, but paying off that loan with the proceeds of a home refinance will effectively drop the payment to $150—but does it really make sense to finance a car for 30 years?

Hope this is useful

Bill Nickerson

Bill Nickerson NMLS #4194  | bill@billnickerson.com | 978-273-3227

Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged… And…

A divided Federal Reserve held the line on interest rates Wednesday and indicated formally that no cuts are coming in 2019. The decision came amid divisions over what is ahead and still leaves open the possibility that policy loosening could happen before the end of the year depending on how conditions unfold.

The central bank predicts one or two rate cuts in its set of economic predictions, but not until 2020. Despite cautious wording in the post-meeting statement Wednesday, markets are still betting the Fed cuts, as soon as July.

These statements and what has been going on in the Whitehouse has caused the Bond and Treasury markets to rally hitting 2 year lows.  As a result, mortgage rates are hitting new lows everyday.  We are seeing the 30 year fixed rate at 3.75% with 0 points.  A rate we have not seen since 2017!

The U.S. central bank voted Wednesday to maintain its benchmark interest rate in a range of 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent, a move that many anticipated despite growing calls for the Fed to cut. But eight out of 17 officials penciled in rate reductions by the end of this year, which would be the first such adjustment since the economy plummeted into the depths of the Great Recession.

Language in Fed Chair Powell’s dictates the markets

The committee changed language from its May statement to indicate that economic activity is “rising at a moderate rate,” a downgrade from “solid.”

In their baseline scenario, FOMC members said they still expect “sustained expansion of economic activity” and a move toward 2% inflation but realize that “uncertainties about this outlook have increased.”

“In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective,” the statement said. The “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” language mirrors a statement from Powell in early June.

These may seem very subtle to most, but the slight change of “Moderate” to “Solid” speaks volumes to Wall Street. Wall Street is betting on future rate cuts and the markets are reacting positively!

Mortgage Rates Continue to Drop!

With the recent news of the Feds today, mortgage rates continue the rally.  The 30 year fixed rate with 0 points 3.75% based on a 740 credit score on a single family home with 25% equity. For more details about rates and terms, call or email me anytime!

Bill Nickerson NMLS #4194 | Bill’s Email | 978-.273.3227

Another Reason to Own A Home

In case you need another reason to purchase a home for you and your family; Here is an article I just read in the National Mortgage Professional Magazine, “Study Concludes Homeownership Tied to Positive Outcomes for Children“.  According to a new study by professors Richard K. Green and Gary D. Painter at the University of Southern California and Michelle J. White at the University of San Diego, “Homeownership is associated with lower high school dropout rates and lower teen birth rates.”  To read more about these findings, go to NMPM: Study Concludes Homeownership Tied to Positive Outcomes for Children and view the study results at Measuring the Benefits of Homeowning: Effects on Children Redux.  Let me know what you think about this information.  Do you agree or disagree?

For more information about home financing or the economy, please contact me at 978-327-3227  or Bill@billnickerson.com

U.S. Mortgage Rates Decline, With 30-Year at a Record-Low 3.56%

Check out this Bloomberg article! 

NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY OR REFINANCE!!

U.S. mortgage rates dropped, with 30-year loans reaching a record low for a fourth straight week, amid signs of improvement in the housing market.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.56 percent in the week ended today, the lowest in Freddie Mac records dating to 1971, from 3.62 percent. The average 15-year rate dropped to 2.86 percent, also a record, from 2.89 percent, the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage-finance company said today in a statement.

Rising home sales and a slowing decline in prices has relieved some strains on the U.S. housing market. The number of homes with loans for more than the properties are worth fell in the first quarter to 11.4 million, or almost 24 percent of all homes with a mortgage, from 12.1 million, or more than 25 percent, in the fourth quarter of last year, according to a report today by data provider CoreLogic Inc. (CLGX)

“We do have a little bit of a firmer housing market,” Keith Gumbinger, a vice president of HSH.com, a mortgage- information website based in Pompton Plains, New Jersey, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “I don’t think anyone would call it wonderful, but it has improved, or stabilized, over the last few months.”

Contracts to buy previously owned homes rose 5.9 percent last month, matching a two-year high reached in March, the National Association of Realtors reported June 27. Purchases of new U.S. houses rose in May to a two-year high, the Commerce Department said June 25.

Home-loan applications declined in the period ended July 6 for a fourth straight week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. A measure of refinancing dropped 3.4 percent from the prior week, while the purchase gauge climbed 3.3 percent, the Washington-based group said yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Noah Rayman in New York at nrayman@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kara Wetzel at kwetzel@bloomberg.net

For more information about refinancing or the economy,

please email or call me!!

Bill Nickerson NMLS #4194

978-399-1313   Bill@billnickerson.com

What is Earnest Money?

Earnest money is a money deposit made by a buyer to a seller as a sign of good faith that you are seriously interested in buying a home.  This earnest money is credited to the down payment at closing.  It is held in a non-interest bearing trust account until the time of closing. Typically, the buyer submits $500 to $1000 with the offer.  Once the offer has been accepted, the transaction moves forward to Purchase and Sales where another deposit is required.  This amount combined with the offer deposit will come to 5% of the accepted transaction amount.