What rates are the Fed’s adjusting?

George Bailey at Bailey’s Savings and Loan

The Federal Reserve System (also known as the Federal Reserve or simply the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States of America. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of financial panics (particularly the panic of 1907) led to the desire for central control of the monetary system in order to alleviate financial crises. Over the years, events such as the Great Depression in the 1930s and the Great Recession during the 2000s have led to the expansion of the roles and responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System.

What is the Fed Fund Rate?

In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight, on an uncollateralized basis. Reserve balances are amounts held at the Federal Reserve to maintain depository institutions’ reserve requirements. Institutions with surplus balances in their accounts lend those balances to institutions in need of larger balances. The federal funds rate is an important benchmark in financial markets. (This is so a “Run” on the bank will never occur again)

The Federal Reserve

The interest rate that the borrowing bank pays to the lending bank to borrow the funds is negotiated between the two banks, and the weighted average of this rate across all such transactions is the federal funds effective rate. The federal funds target rate is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee which normally occurs eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule.

When a Bank gets in to trouble and does not have enough funds to operate, they are allowed to borrow money from the Federal Reserve or from another Bank, the rate that is used is the Federal Fund Rate and is solely used for overnight lending from bank to bank.  This rate has been adopted by several other indexes and rates.  

The Fed Fund Rate is also used to set other Rates, the majority being adjustable rates.  Mortgage rates are influenced by the Fed Fund Rates but do not use this index to adjust.

Since the time of the Federal Fund Rate, other rates are calculated using this rate as the base rate.  The Prime Rate, Credit Card Rates, Home Equity Lines of Credit to name a few.  In the example of the Prime Lending Rate, the rate uses the Fed Fund Rate plus a margin of 3% to create the Prime Rate.  Credit Cards will use the Prime Rate as its base and then add a margin to that rate. The Federal Reserve uses open market operations to make the federal funds effective rate follow the federal funds target rate. The target rate is chosen in part to influence the money supply in the U.S. economy.

Trying to prevent panic at the Bank, George Bailey

Financial institutions are obligated by law to maintain certain levels of reserves, either as reserves with the Fed or as vault cash. The level of these reserves is determined by the outstanding assets and liabilities of each depository institution, as well as by the Fed itself, but is typically 10% of the total value of the bank’s demand accounts (depending on bank size). In the range of $9.3 million to $43.9 million, for transaction deposits (checking accounts, NOWs, and other deposits that can be used to make payments) the reserve requirement in 2007–2008 was 3 percent of the end-of-the-day daily average amount held over a two-week period. Transaction deposits over $43.9 million held at the same depository institution carried a 10 percent reserve requirement.

For example, assume a particular U.S. depository institution, in the normal course of business, issues a loan. This dispenses money and decreases the ratio of bank reserves to money loaned. If its reserve ratio drops below the legally required minimum, it must add to its reserves to remain compliant with Federal Reserve regulations. The bank can borrow the requisite funds from another bank that has a surplus in its account with the Fed. The interest rate that the borrowing bank pays to the lending bank to borrow the funds is negotiated between the two banks, and the weighted average of this rate across all such transactions is the federal funds effective rate.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

The federal funds target rate is set by the governors of the Federal Reserve, which they enforce by open market operations and adjustments in the interest rate on reserves. The target rate is almost always what is meant by the media referring to the Federal Reserve “changing interest rates.” The actual federal funds rate generally lies within a range of that target rate, as the Federal Reserve cannot set an exact value through open market operations.

 Another way banks can borrow funds to keep up their required reserves is by taking a loan from the Federal Reserve itself at the discount window. These loans are subject to audit by the Fed, and the discount rate is usually higher than the federal funds rate. Confusion between these two kinds of loans often leads to confusion between the federal funds rate and the discount rate. Another difference is that while the Fed cannot set an exact federal funds rate, it does set the specific discount rate.

 The federal funds rate target is decided by the governors at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The FOMC members will either increase, decrease, or leave the rate unchanged depending on the meeting’s agenda and the economic conditions of the U.S. It is possible to infer the market expectations of the FOMC decisions at future meetings from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Fed Funds futures contracts, and these probabilities are widely reported in the financial media

For information about Mortgages, Construction Loans, Lines of Credit, feel free to call or email me anytime

Bill Nickerson |  NMLS# 4194 | Flagstar Bank | 1500 District Avenue | Burlington MA |  Email | 978.273.3227

Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged… And…

A divided Federal Reserve held the line on interest rates Wednesday and indicated formally that no cuts are coming in 2019. The decision came amid divisions over what is ahead and still leaves open the possibility that policy loosening could happen before the end of the year depending on how conditions unfold.

The central bank predicts one or two rate cuts in its set of economic predictions, but not until 2020. Despite cautious wording in the post-meeting statement Wednesday, markets are still betting the Fed cuts, as soon as July.

These statements and what has been going on in the Whitehouse has caused the Bond and Treasury markets to rally hitting 2 year lows.  As a result, mortgage rates are hitting new lows everyday.  We are seeing the 30 year fixed rate at 3.75% with 0 points.  A rate we have not seen since 2017!

The U.S. central bank voted Wednesday to maintain its benchmark interest rate in a range of 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent, a move that many anticipated despite growing calls for the Fed to cut. But eight out of 17 officials penciled in rate reductions by the end of this year, which would be the first such adjustment since the economy plummeted into the depths of the Great Recession.

Language in Fed Chair Powell’s dictates the markets

The committee changed language from its May statement to indicate that economic activity is “rising at a moderate rate,” a downgrade from “solid.”

In their baseline scenario, FOMC members said they still expect “sustained expansion of economic activity” and a move toward 2% inflation but realize that “uncertainties about this outlook have increased.”

“In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective,” the statement said. The “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” language mirrors a statement from Powell in early June.

These may seem very subtle to most, but the slight change of “Moderate” to “Solid” speaks volumes to Wall Street. Wall Street is betting on future rate cuts and the markets are reacting positively!

Mortgage Rates Continue to Drop!

With the recent news of the Feds today, mortgage rates continue the rally.  The 30 year fixed rate with 0 points 3.75% based on a 740 credit score on a single family home with 25% equity. For more details about rates and terms, call or email me anytime!

Bill Nickerson NMLS #4194 | Bill’s Email | 978-.273.3227

Feds leave rates unchanged

The Federal Reserve left borrowing costs unchanged, continuing to delay any rate moves amid persistently low inflation.

The U.S. central bank voted unanimously Wednesday to maintain its benchmark interest rate in a range of 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent, a move that many anticipated despite stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter of 2019 and an unemployment rate near a half-century low.

“Economic activity rose at a solid rate,” while job growth continued to be “solid, on average, in recent months,” the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said in its post-meeting statement released Wednesday in Washington. “Overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have declined and are running below 2 percent.”

Inflation weakness driving Fed’s patience

Following their April 30-May 1 gathering, however, Fed officials signaled that the primary driver for holding the federal funds rate steady is now inflation – and specifically why it’s continued to register below the Fed’s target during an expansion set to become the longest on record. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during the press conference following the meeting that those global risks had “moderated” since officials last met.

The Fed in its post-meeting statement got rid of any language saying that the economy had “slowed” from its previous robust pace and that inflation remained “near” its 2 percent target. They also noted that household spending had “slowed.”

Prices excluding food and energy, as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge, cooled in March to 1.6 percent, the slowest pace since January 2018, according to the Department of Commerce.

“Those aren’t conditions under which the Fed feels compelled to change interest rates in either direction,” says Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “The economy looks better than it did when the Fed last met in March, but with inflation readings continuing to decelerate, the Fed is no closer to resuming rate hikes.”

Pressure mounting for a rate cut

The Fed’s decision comes amid President Trump’s repeated calls for the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates. The chief executive on Tuesday renewed his requests in a tweet, urging the Fed to lower borrowing costs by one percentage point to send the economy “up like a rocket.”

The markets are also looking for signs of a cut. Fed watchers are betting there’s nearly a 30-percent chance that the U.S. central bank will cut rates at some point this year, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Officials, however, gave no indication of whether their next move could be a cut.  “We think our policy stance is appropriate, and we don’t see a strong reason for moving in one direction or the other,” Powell said.

information provided and written by:

SARAH FOSTER   @SARAHFFOSTER

MAY 1, 2019 in FEDERAL RESERVE

Bill Nickerson of Fidelity Cooperative Bank

Federal Reserve Moves… Mortgage Rates???

Janet Yellen

I wrote this blog over 2 years ago, and it applies to the same principles of today. This is also why you will see the picture of Janet Yellen to the right who has since been replaced by Jerome Powell.

Did you know in the Month of December, Mortgage Rates have dropped nearly 1/2%?  Even know the Federal Reserve has raised the key short term interest rate.

The current Fed Chair has raised rates for a fourth time this year on December 19th 2018:            (Here is the original Post from 2016) This news is bad for borrowers and consumers who may have a Home Equity Line of Credit, Revolving Credit Debt, Looking for a new Car loan or any other type of adjustable short term interest rate.  Even though this move has been widely expected, we never seem to grasp the reality of what it does.  The Fed Fund Rate has no direct tie to mortgage rates or other fixed rates in the market, it’s how the Markets perceive the comments of The Fed.

The FOMC meeting adjourned with an announcement of a quarter point increase to key short-term interest rates. Short Term interest rates are the Prime Lending Rate, Credit Cards, Car Loans to name a few. This was expected and priced in to the mortgage market over the last several days.  However,  We did get some surprises  and the bond market has not responded well to them. The biggest and most impact is that the Fed is estimating 3 or more rate hikes next year when the previous estimate was 1 or 2. That means the Fed is confident in the U.S. economy continuing to grow, making bonds less attractive. This is especially true when the Fed strongly believes that inflation will continue to strengthen. Their revised economic projections showed a slight upward revision to the GDP (1.8% to 1.9%), a downward tick in the unemployment rate (4.8% to 4.7%) and no change to core inflation (1.7%). Overall, the news has not been taken well in the stock or bond markets. The Dow is currently down 152 points while the Nasdaq is down 32 points as the rate increases are expected to restrict future economic growth and corporate earnings. The bond market is currently down 15/32 (2.52%) since the additional rate increases means the Fed feels that the economy will continue to strengthen and be able to absorb those moves. The net impact on mortgage rates is an intraday upward revision of approximately .250 of a discount at the time of this update. However, if bonds continue to slide, another increase before the end of the day is quite possible.

So What Happens?  The Financial Markets react to the shift in rate hike expectations among Fed members.  The Fed has increased the amount of times they increase the key short term rates in the future.  Thus causing Wall Street to react which will affect the Stock Market and Mortgage Markets in a Positive or Negative way depending upon the actual language of the Federal Reserve, and they use their words very carefully.  The Mortgage Markets will act the opposite of the Stock Markets…Stock Market is up, rates tend to worsen, Stock Market drops, Mortgage rates will improve.  Why? As the stock market falls, traders will pull there money from risky stocks and invest in the Bond Markets or Treasuries, known as a much safer investment which causes mortgage rates to improve.  And this can all be caused by the language the Federal Reserve uses.  Back when Alan Greenspan was in office, the markets would react to how light or heavy his briefcase was.  Yes… its this sensitive!!

What should you be doing?

If you are in the process of purchasing a home, Now is the time to reach out to your Loan Officer and request them to update your Pre-Approval in order to reflect the higher mortgage rates.  Rates, depending upon when the Pre-Approval was issued, could be up as high as 3/4’s to a full percent.  That equates to over $100 in a monthly payment for loans above $200,00 and in some cases even more.

 

For More Information about Mortgage Rates, Loan Approvals and mortgages that are best suited to your financial needs, contact me anytime at 978-273-3227 or  email me  and  you can always visit my mortgage site at www.billnickerson.com

William Nickerson